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The year 2024 has proven to be a historic milestone in electoral history - arguably the most significant election year we've ever seen! Across the world, many crucial elections have taken place, carrying implications that resonate far beyond their national borders. These elections are critical not only for the citizens and internal policies of these nations but also for global geopolitical dynamics and, significantly, environmental policies.
2024 has been marked by dramatic and unpredictable events, further heating up the political atmosphere. In the United States, Donald Trump - who narrowly survived an assassination attempt - secured a return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, a development that has raised significant concerns about the future of environmental protections. During his previous term, Trump rolled back over 100 environmental regulations and many fear that his new administration will take even more extreme actions.
Meanwhile, in France, the political landscape was upended when Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party performed strongly in the European elections, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election. In a surprising turn of events, the votes swung to the left, with the new Popular Front (a coalition of green and left parties) emerging as the leading force - though still short of a majority. This outcome may also prove to have significant implications for France's environmental policies.
These developments highlight how elections can bring unexpected outcomes and shock surprises, often with far-reaching implications for the environment.
👉 In this article we’ll explore the most crucial elections of 2024, examining what their outcomes could mean for the environment.
In 2024, nearly half of the global population (49%), amounting to about 4 billion individuals, will possess the right to vote. This represents a significant collective force and one with the potential to profoundly impact environmental policies. Each political candidate offers a unique stance on climate policy, and their level of commitment to tackling global climate change varies markedly. The choices made by voters could therefore have substantial consequences in shaping our planet's environmental future.
In this article, we will delve into the most anticipated elections of the year, focusing on their environmental implications. We'll explore how the outcomes of these elections could significantly influence climate policy, shaping the global approach to environmental challenges.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election was one of the most anticipated and consequential in recent memory, with major implications for the US and beyond. The campaign was marked by deep polarisation, as heated rhetoric from both sides further divided an already tense electorate. The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania underscored just how volatile the political climate had become, adding to the high stakes of the race.
President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race added another twist, as he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the Democratic ticket.
The election ended in November with Trump's victory, signaling a dramatic political comeback and setting the stage for major policy changes, especially on environmental issues.
Trump's return to the White House has raised serious concerns about the future of environmental regulations. During his previous term, he rolled back more than 100 environmental protections. This time, his administration is expected to take an even harder stance, guided by Project 2025, which includes a plan for significant overhauls to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Environmental and health groups are already preparing to counter these anticipated moves.
Trump's campaign also promised partnerships with figures like Elon Musk and major cuts to the Inflation Reduction Act, which was pivotal in reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Despite these worrying prospects, environmental advocates are gearing up for legal battles and ramping up efforts at state and local levels to keep climate action moving forward.
Donald Trump's return to the presidency in 2024 signals a significant shift in U.S. climate policy. During his first term, Trump made sweeping rollbacks to over 100 environmental regulations, which weakened protections for air, water, and ecosystems.
His withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 also sent shockwaves across the international community, diminishing the United States' role as a global leader in climate action. While President Joe Biden rejoined the accord and pushed ambitious climate measures like the Inflation Reduction Act, Trump’s re-election has reignited concerns about the sustainability of those gains.
Trump’s rhetoric throughout his 2024 campaign provided clear indications of his stance on climate issues. He repeatedly dismissed clean energy initiatives as “new scams” and emphasised a return to aggressive fossil fuel extraction, promising an era of "drill, baby, drill." His approach aligns with Project 2025, a conservative blueprint advocating significant cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the rollback of climate policies that support renewable energy development and emissions reductions.
Environmental advocates fear that Trump's policies will stall or reverse progress made under the previous administration. The Inflation Reduction Act, which bolstered clean energy investment and incentivised emissions reductions, is particularly at risk. Climate activists anticipate that federal funding for green initiatives and international climate commitments may also face severe cutbacks, potentially impacting global cooperation on carbon reduction efforts.
Moreover, Trump’s promises to prioritise domestic oil and gas drilling could exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions, further endangering the country's ability to meet its climate goals. This shift is expected to spark resistance from state and local governments committed to maintaining climate action and transitioning to cleaner energy.
In May 2024, then UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the general election would be held on Thursday, 4th of July. In the UK, the Prime Minister has the authority to call a general election at any point within their five-year term. Consequently, voters across the nation took to the polling booths to decide which political party would govern the country for the next five years.
Traditionally, the choice in UK elections has always come down to two dominating options - the Conservative Party or the Labour Party, and this year was no different. The Conservatives had managed to hold on to power since winning the general election in 2010. However, in the run-up to the election, polls painted a dire picture for the party and its leader, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. These predictions proved accurate as Labour secured a landslide victory, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.
Keir Starmer has declared that the “sunlight of hope” is now shining in Britain again as Labour won a landslide UK election victory, bringing a crushing end to 14 years of Conservative rule. Starmer is expected to officially become prime minister later on Friday after Rishi Sunak conceded, with voters giving Starmer a large mandate to bring about change in Britain.
The Conservative party is on track to record its worst performance in a general election, with a record number of cabinet ministers losing their seats. Prominent figures such as Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, and Grant Shapps were ousted.
Labour won 412 seats, while the Conservatives are down to just 121. This gives the Labour government a commanding majority. The party dominated in Scotland, reducing the SNP to nine seats, while the Liberal Democrats secured 72 seats.
A surge in votes for the populist Reform party meant that it won four seats, with Nigel Farage, the party leader, becoming an MP in Clacton on his eighth attempt to enter parliament. The Greens also managed to secure four seats, after surprise victories in Waveney, North Herefordshire, and Bristol Central. There were shock victories for pro-Palestine independent candidates, with Jonathan Ashworth, one of Labour’s election chiefs, voted out in Leicester South, and the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn winning in Islington North.
Former Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, was selected to act as leader of the Conservative Party in October 2022, following the resignation of Lizz Truss after only 49 days in office (the shortest term of any UK Prime Minister). Truss also found herself in the position after Boris Johnson resigned from the role in July 2022.
At first, it was hoped that Rishi Sunak would instil a more liberal form of Tory politics, yet the reality has been very different. In fact, Rishi Sunak represents one of the most conservative leaders since Margaret Thatcher. His tough stance on immigration and his more traditional line on social issues such as transgender rights have seen the party lean even further to the right.
Rishi Sunak also performed a sharp U-turn on a number of key green policies leading to a decline in the UK’s reputation as an international climate leader. Net zero policies that were watered down by Sunak include a delay on the ban on new petrol and diesel cars until 2035, the granting of new licences for oil and gas projects in the North Sea, and the scrapping of plans to ensure that rental properties have a minimum energy performance. These acts were met with widespread condemnation from environmentalists and MPs alike.
Some viewed the move as a political tactic, stemming from the Conservative Party’s win in the 2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election. The seat in question was previously held by Boris Johson and so a voter backlash was expected. Not only this, but Labour had heavily campaigned in the area. However, it was the Conservatives who retained the seat. This was attributed to their decision to target London’s Labour mayor, Sadiq Khan, and his low-emission strategy. The Conservatives accused the Labour Party of being anti-car and targeting owners of older vehicles.
This anti-green rhetoric was used again by the Conservative Party, when Rishi Sunak announced his climate policy rollbacks in September 2023. He framed the decision as one that was centred on concern for people’s cost of living - but the subtext was clear; that green policies are expensive and elitist. This tactic, often referred to as wedge politics, signified a shift in the Conservative’s approach to climate change. Boris Johnson for example had been a strong proponent of climate change action and the party as a whole was generally supportive of environmental measures.
In 2023, Rishi Sunak attended COP28 in Dubai where he assured delegates that the measures do not represent a change in stance on the environment for the Conservative Party, he insisted that the UK is still focused on reaching net-zero emissions. Sunak did however state that decarbonisation should be pragmatic and that it shouldn't place unnecessary cost burdens on the average consumer.
Although the environment didn’t take centre stage during the UK election, it’s still notable that lines were drawn between the Conservative's “pragmatic” approach and Labour's more staunch commitment to the environment and securing net zero emissions.
But what about the Labour leader, and new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer? What is his track record when it comes to the environment?
Keir Starmer is an entirely different leader to Rishi Sunak - though equally pragmatic in his own way. Initially, Starmer was seen as leaning left of the party, however, over time his policies have shifted towards the centre - perhaps in an attempt to gain more widespread support across the country and appeal to voters who have become disillusioned by Conservative scandals.
When it comes to the environment Starmer has stated that he intends to roll back some of the controversial policy changes enforced by Rishi Sunak, he has also reaffirmed his commitment to decarbonising the UK economy, highlighting the need to address climate change as an opportunity.
It seems more than likely, therefore, that a Labour government is the better choice when it comes to environmental protection and climate action. If Starmer stays true to his word when it comes to green policies, the UK could be poised to re-emerge as a front-runner in global climate leadership.
👉 To learn more about Rishi Sunak and his environmental track record head over to our blog. Or to understand Labour’s stance on climate policy check out our article.
Labour now faces the task of implementing its vision for the country. Within two weeks, Labour will present its first package of legislation, including measures to bolster workers’ rights and establish Great British Energy, the energy generation company at the heart of Labour’s green plans. Keir Starmer will also attend a meeting of the European Political Community in London, his first opportunity to lobby for improved trading relations and address cross-Channel asylum seekers.
Rachel Reeves is likely to present her first budget in the autumn, where she is expected to announce Labour’s first tax policies, including tightening non-dom tax breaks, extending the oil and gas windfall tax, and taxing private school fees. These measures aim to avoid the significant public sector cuts implied by current fiscal forecasts and ensure a fairer economic landscape.
India is now the most populous country in the world, with over 1.4 billion people calling it their home. And between April 19th and June 1st of 2024, citizens took to the polls, shaping the political landscape of the country for the foreseeable future.
This year's election in India was a general election which means that the country selected its central government.
The last general election in the country was held in 2019. Voters elected the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as the nation’s government. This marked Narendra Damodardas Modi’s second term as India’s Prime Minister, a victory that he has again repeated in 2024.
💡 The prime minister of India is the head of the country’s government, with the right to exercise executive authority even though India’s president is the nominal head of the elective. What this means in practice is that all executive powers are carried out by the prime minister instead of the president. The role of the president is sometimes referred to as ceremonial in nature and can be likened to that of the British monarchy - ie. The president acts as a referee over the parliamentary system, but the real power lies with the prime minister.
During his first two terms, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was a reasonably popular leader, particularly in the North of the country - in the south of the country however, his support significantly waned. Yet, despite a lack of popularity in some regions, Modi once again won the general election in 2024, heralding a third term for the Prime Minister.
The main opposition - the Indian National Congress party - was not able to topple the ruling party from its position of dominance. Support for the party was not widespread throughout the country and the party has also struggled with infighting and other issues in recent years.
Despite Modi's recent win, what's notable is that his party did not perform as well as expected. Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party did not secure a majority on its own, which means that Modi will need the support of other parties in his coalition.
However, with another win for Prime Minister Modi, we have a pretty good idea of what a third term means for India and the environment. So what is Prime Minister Modi’s environmental track record?
Coal - the dirtiest of all fossil fuels - is the country’s top energy source, providing 46% of the country’s energy in 2022. Oil comes in second with a share of 24%, followed by biomass at 21%. Natural gas accounts for 5% and clean energy such as hydro, solar, wind, and nuclear provide just 4% of the country’s electricity.
These figures are clearly of concern, both in terms of global carbon emissions and the direct effects on the country itself. Levels of pollution in India are dangerously high. India has some of the worst air quality in the world. According to the WHO, in 2018, 14 out of the 15 most polluted cities in the world could be found in India. In 2023, India found itself slightly better off, with only 10 cities making their way into the list of the top 15 most polluted cities in the world, however, if you take the top 50 most polluted cities, a whopping 39 of them can be found in India!
The alarming levels of pollution in India are causing severe impacts on both the environment and the health of residents in its cities, marking it as a critical nationwide issue. Addressing this challenge is a priority for Prime Minister Modi, who is actively seeking solutions to mitigate these detrimental effects.
At the 2021 COP26 summit, India notably escalated its climate ambitions, committing to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. This target, while less aggressive than the 2050 goal set by developed nations, represents a significant step for India. Additionally, the country has revised its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), outlining a more robust set of targets. Key among these are a reduction in the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 and a commitment to ensuring that renewable energy accounts for 50% of its energy needs by the same year.
Another interesting observation when it comes to Prime Minister Modi and climate change is that he’s not afraid to call the West out for its role in global warming. Industrialisation, while allowing countries in the West to rapidly develop, and for living standards to improve too, is what got us into this mess in the first place. Our reliance on fossil fuels has disrupted the carbon balance and we’re now starting to see the impacts. The real point of contention for developing nations is that they’re now being asked to forgo the same opportunity to develop for the sake of the environment, while countries in the West - who largely created the situation - are failing to cough up even the bare minimum in terms of financing to help developing nations not only transition but also deal with the damaging effects of a changing climate.
When it comes to the environment, Prime Minister Modi is a known quantity, and since he’s set to continue into a third term, there is optimism that he will persist in championing the green transition, steering India towards a more carbon-neutral future.
Prime Minister Modi often says the right things, however, with the vast majority of the country’s energy still being supplied by harmful fossil fuels, there’s a tremendous amount of work still to be done and the fact that he’s shied away from committing to the phase-out of the country’s coal industry is also worrying.
👉To understand why climate change is such a pressing challenge for India why not take a look at our dedicated article.
Russia is currently in the midst of its presidential election, with the country's current president, Vladimir Putin, set to win re-election. Putin first assumed office in 1999, initially bound by the Russian constitution to two consecutive four-year terms. However, constitutional amendments made in 2008 and 2020 have extended his eligibility, allowing him the possibility of serving two additional six-year terms.
Many observers in the West remain sceptical as to whether the elections will truly be fair and democratic. The treatment of Putin’s biggest political opponent, Alexei Navalny, and his subsequent criminal trials, incarceration (which are considered by many to be politically motivated), and death have cast serious doubts. Claims of political suppression have only grown in recent years as the war in Ukraine rages on. It’s therefore expected that the election will largely be dominated by Putin and that his win is essentially a foregone conclusion.
With the status quo likely to continue, what does it mean for Russia’s climate commitments? Russia has set climate targets of becoming carbon neutral by 2060 and limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 70% of 1990 levels by 2030. This might sound promising, however, climate experts have stated that these targets don’t go far enough if we’re to ensure that global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (vs 1990s).
Even more concerning is Russia’s stance at the recent COP28 summit in Dubai where their delegate spoke out against the phasing out of fossil fuels. The country’s recently updated climate doctrine also failed to mention fossil fuels or their role in global warming.
Russia is a state that is heavily reliant on its oil and gas industry, 16% of its GDP is linked to the sector, and with the ongoing war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country’s funds there’s decreasing motivation to roll out costlier climate initiatives.
Additionally, green projects that relied on Western cooperation (finance, technology, equipment, etc) are now unlikely to move forward. Research estimates that in order to reduce emissions and transition away from reliance on the oil and gas industry, Russia would require a significant amount of imported equipment and technology (55% in the oil industry and 45% in the power sector).
With the inevitability that Putin will remain in power, and with no end in sight for the war in Ukraine, the outlook for Russia’s net zero transition looks more and more bleak. With Western countries pulling out of projects, and no sign of thawing relations between countries, sadly the environment will likely be another casualty of Putin’s ill-advised war.
Once a respected player when it came to conservation, Brazil’s environmental credentials took a severe nose-dive under the tenure of the previous president, Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro essentially presided over the destruction of more than 45,980 square km (between 2019 and 2022) of precious tropical rainforest. If you compare this to deforestation rates over the previous four years, this represents a 60.8% increase.
Thankfully for the environment, Bolsonaro lost the presidential election in 2022, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (commonly referred to as Lula) became Brazil’s new president. Much of Lula's campaign focused on the Amazon rainforest and he pledged to end deforestation by 2030. Already by the close of 2023, we were able to see the effects of Lula’s work to strengthen the protection of the forest with deforestation levels at their lowest since 2018.
This all sounds like great news, and it is for the most part, however, the country is politically divided and Congress is in the hands of the opposition. 2024 will see voters take to the polls to elect their city mayors and councillors. And although the results won’t drastically impact Lula’s policies or efforts to protect the environment they should provide a snapshot of how voters might vote at the next general election in just two years. With the fate of the “Earth’s lungs” hanging in the balance, Brazil’s elections will be carefully watched around the globe.
👉 This article dives into more detail on Bolsonaro’s catastrophic impact on the Amazon rainforest.
In June 2024, voters across the European Union took to the polls to elect the new European Parliament, shaping the bloc's climate policy for the next five years.
Climate policy within the European Union is greatly shaped by the EU Parliament, which wields considerable influence over the legal obligations of member states. For example, EU nations are subject to legally binding climate targets aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as stipulated by the EU’s Climate Law and the European Green Deal. Furthermore, the EU Parliament has formulated comprehensive climate strategies, such as the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. This framework sets forth specific targets and policies for emission reduction across the bloc and facilitates the transition to clean energy. This is why the recent EU Parliament elections are likely to have profound implications for all 27 member countries of the European Union.
Historically, the EU parliament has been ambitious in its climate agenda and is responsible for some of the world’s most progressive climate targets and policies. This follows on from the last election held in 2019, where green parties saw a huge surge in public support, reflecting growing concern for the environment. The outcome of the election forced the Commission's president, Ursula von der Leyen to develop an ambitious climate agenda. What followed was four years of significant policy overhaul on the climate front.
However, the recent elections brought about significant shifts and surprises. The far-right finished first in France, Italy, and Austria, and came second in Germany and the Netherlands. In France, the far-right Rassemblement National party obtained the most votes (31.5%), prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election after his coalition finished second. Despite these gains, the existing coalition retained its majority in the EU Parliament, with the center-right European People's Party (EPP) securing the most seats, followed by the center-left Socialists and Democrats and the centrist Renew Europe.
In Germany, the conservatives (CDU-CSU) came out on top, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best result nationwide since its creation. In Austria, the far-right FPÖ party led the vote count for the first time. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's far-right party won a decisive victory.
Conversely, left-wing parties in Nordic countries gained ground, with the Socialist People's Party in Denmark and the Left Alliance in Finland making significant gains.
Still, the fact remains that we are unlikely to see climate and the environment get the kind of attention and support they enjoyed in the 2019 elections. The geopolitical climate has shifted significantly since the last election; we’ve lived through a global pandemic, war has broken out on European soil once more, and the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated drastically. The impacts of these events mean that voters are now more concerned with issues such as the cost of living crisis, the economy, and global security.
Despite this potential shift in focus and support, the next EU parliamentary session will be unable to avoid the topic of environmental issues altogether. There’s been a push for a follow-up to the bloc's green growth strategy, with calls for a European Green Deal 2.0 to be developed, focusing more closely on issues such as green tech and industrial policy.
The interim climate target for 2040 is also yet to be established. Targets have been set for 2030, and the EU Commission presented a proposal for the 2040 goals in February earlier this year (the Commission recommended reducing the EU's net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 relative to 1990), however, this is likely to be debated for months ahead.
On July 7, 2024, French voters once again kept the far right out of power, but the results have led to significant uncertainty. President Emmanuel Macron called the snap parliamentary election to “clarify” the political situation. However, the results have left French politics more disordered than before. While a surge in support for the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition foiled Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party, the outcome was a hung parliament with shaky alliances.
The NFP emerged with the most seats in the National Assembly, winning 182 seats, making it the largest group in the 577-seat parliament. However, the NFP fell short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament. Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which had a weak showing in the first round, recovered to win 163 seats. The RN and its allies, despite leading in the first round, only secured 143 seats. This outcome underscores the effectiveness of the "cordon sanitaire", the principle that mainstream parties must unite to prevent the extreme right from taking office. However, the lack of a clear majority means that forming a government will require complex coalition negotiations, something relatively new in recent French political history.
Despite the NFP’s success, the RN's performance also remains significant. In the 2017 elections, the RN won just eight seats. By 2022, it had surged to 89 seats, and in the 2024 election, it captured 143 seats, making it the largest individual party. This unity ensures it will remain a potent force in the next parliament.
The next steps for France are uncertain. Macron, as President, will need to appoint a prime minister who can secure the support of a majority in the National Assembly. This could involve forming a coalition that includes members from various political spectrums, including potentially controversial alliances. Macron’s camp has hinted at possible coalitions with conservative MPs, while the NFP’s internal divisions might complicate its ability to present a unified front. The process will likely be protracted and fraught with challenges, making the political future of France unpredictable in the coming months.
As 2024 comes to a close, it is evident that this year's elections were not just about political leadership but about the future of our environment. The choices made by voters this year will shape the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the world we pass on to future generations. Every ballot cast carried the weight of our planet’s future.
In the U.S., Donald Trump’s return to the presidency marks a stark departure from the climate-forward initiatives championed by President Biden. Trump's "drill, baby, drill" approach signals a renewed focus on fossil fuel expansion and potential rollbacks of hard-won climate policies.
Meanwhile, the UK experienced a political shift with Keir Starmer’s decisive victory, bringing hope for stronger environmental policies and renewed global leadership on climate issues.
In India, Prime Minister Modi’s third term poses a delicate balance between advancing economic growth and addressing environmental sustainability, which could serve as a blueprint for other developing nations.
In France, the snap elections highlighted political fragmentation, with the left-leaning NFP coalition pushing for greener policies amid ongoing uncertainty. Meanwhile, in the EU, the recent elections could either fuel or weaken some of the world's most progressive climate initiatives.
Every ballot cast in these elections is more than just a vote for a leader; it's a vote for the kind of world we want to live in. It's about recognising that our local choices have global consequences, especially for those in climate-vulnerable areas who face the brunt of our actions (or inactions). As voters step into polling booths this year, they're not just deciding their country's future, they're tipping the scales for the global battle against climate change. The decisions made could accelerate our journey towards a greener tomorrow or put the brakes on the progress we desperately need. In the end, 2024 isn't just another election year; it's a choice about our planet's path forward.
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