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Permafrost: The Deep Thaw Fuelling Climate Change
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Most of us don’t give much thought to the ground beneath our feet. But in some of the coldest regions on Earth, that ground isn’t just dirt and rock – it’s what’s known as permafrost.
Frozen solid for thousands of years, this layer of earth has quietly held onto a vast store of ancient carbon, plant matter, and even animal remains. Now, as global temperatures rise, permafrost is starting to thaw, and the consequences can be alarming.
“ This isn’t just a problem for Arctic communities watching roads buckle and buildings tilt. Permafrost holds nearly twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere, and as it melts, it threatens to release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, supercharging climate change in ways we’re only beginning to understand. In fact, emissions from thawing permafrost alone could consume between 25% and 40% of the remaining carbon budget needed to cap warming at the 2°C target set out in the Paris Agreement. ”
Permafrost may not make headlines as often as wildfires or rising sea levels, but scientists consider it to be one of the most critical, and potentially dangerous, elements in the climate system.
In this article, we’ll break down what permafrost actually is, why it matters, and what happens when it starts to thaw.
What is permafrost?
“ Permafrost is exactly what it sounds like: permanently frozen ground. But that simple definition hides something far more complex and climate-relevant than you might expect. ”
Permafrost forms in areas where the ground (not the surface ice) stays at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. It’s a mix of soil, rock, sand, and organic material (like long-dead plants and animals) that have been locked in a deep freeze, in some cases for tens of thousands of years. Unlike glaciers or ice sheets, which sit on top of the land, permafrost refers specifically to frozen ground beneath the surface.
This frozen layer isn’t always visible, it often sits hidden beneath a surface layer that thaws and refreezes seasonally, something known as the active layer. Below that, the permafrost remains hard as rock.
Scientists usually classify permafrost into three main types depending on how continuous or patchy it is across the landscape:
| Type of Permafrost | Description | Main Locations |
|---|---|---|
| Continuous | Covers more than 90% of the land in a given area | Northern Siberia, Arctic Canada |
| Discontinuous | Covers 50–90% of land, with some unfrozen gaps | Alaska Interior, Northern Scandinavia |
| Sporadic | Less than 50% coverage, often shallow and isolated | Southern boreal regions, some mountain areas |
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So while permafrost sounds like something that is specific to the Arctic, it’s actually widespread, covering huge stretches of the Northern Hemisphere and even appearing in high mountain ranges further south.
“ And that organic matter frozen inside it? It's anything but irrelevant. As the ground thaws, long-trapped carbon and methane can be released into the atmosphere, turning ancient soil into a very modern problem. ”
Where is permafrost found?
Permafrost covers around 11% of the global surface, rising to 15% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere
It’s most commonly found in cold, high-latitude regions where the air temperature stays below freezing for most of the year. Think of places like:
- Siberia – home to some of the deepest and most continuous permafrost on Earth
- Alaska and Northern Canada – where entire towns are built on frozen ground
- Greenland – covered in ice, yes, but also underlain by extensive permafrost
- Scandinavia and Northern Europe – where patches of discontinuous permafrost exist
The Tibetan Plateau and high-altitude Andes and Alps – proof that it’s not just latitude, but elevation, that matters too
| Country | Approximate Permafrost Coverage (of land area) |
|---|---|
| Russia | 65% |
| Canada | 50% |
| China | 22% |
| Alaska | 85% |
Much of this frozen ground lies far from where most people live, but its influence extends well beyond the Arctic. As global temperatures climb, the permafrost zone is shifting, with frozen soil giving way to soggy, unstable landscapes, creating a whole myriad of problems.
Why permafrost matters
When we talk about climate change, melting glaciers and rising seas tend to steal the spotlight. But there’s another kind of melt that’s quietly accelerating, and it’s happening underground. Permafrost holds an enormous amount of carbon that’s been frozen in place for thousands of years. As the ground begins to thaw, that carbon doesn’t stay buried. It escapes into the atmosphere, turning frozen soil into a powerful driver of global warming.
“ The scale of those potential emissions is anything but minor. Depending on how much warming occurs, scientists estimate that permafrost thaw could release between 30 and over 150 billion tonnes of carbon this century, equivalent to around 110 to more than 550 billion tonnes of CO2 and more than 2.5 times as much carbon as is currently in the Earth’s atmosphere. At the high end of that range, the cumulative emissions could rival those produced by the United States over the same period at today’s rate. ”
This is because over thousands of years, permafrost has acted like a natural freezer, preserving organic matter like plant roots, mosses, and even ancient animal remains. The cold temperatures kept that material from decomposing. But when the ground warms and starts to thaw, microbes wake up and begin breaking down that matter, releasing carbon dioxide and methane as by-products. Methane in particular is a very potent greenhouse gas; in fact, it’s around 80 times more powerful than CO2 over a 20-year period.
This creates a dangerous feedback loop: rising temperatures cause more permafrost to thaw, which releases more greenhouse gases, which in turn leads to more warming. Scientists call this a climate feedback, and permafrost is one of the most powerful and unpredictable examples.
Permafrost doesn’t melt overnight, but the changes are already underway. What was once stable, frozen ground is now beginning to buckle, collapse, and shift, releasing ancient carbon and reshaping ecosystems along the way.
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What’s happening to permafrost?
“ Permafrost is thawing, and fast. In some regions, what scientists expected to happen over decades is now happening within years. As Arctic temperatures rise at almost four times the global average, the frozen ground that once seemed stable is starting to break down. ”
One of the clearest signs of this is something called thermokarst, a dramatic collapse of the ground surface as ice-rich permafrost melts. These landforms can turn once-flat tundra into a landscape of sinkholes, slumps, and sagging hillsides. In Siberia, the Batagay “megaslump” (a yawning scar in the landscape that’s been growing rapidly in recent years) has become one of the most visible examples of this kind of change.
Infrastructure built on permafrost is also beginning to fail. In parts of Alaska, homes are sinking, roads are cracking, and pipelines are warping as the ground beneath them gives way.
And it’s not just the Arctic. In alpine regions, thawing permafrost is making slopes more unstable, increasing the risk of landslides and rockfalls, a problem that’s already affecting mountain communities and hiking routes in the European Alps and parts of the Andes.
Impacts of permafrost thaw
The thawing of permafrost has serious, far-reaching implications. From releasing potent greenhouse gases to damaging homes and roads, the effects are unfolding across ecosystems, economies, and the climate system itself.
Let’s break down the most significant impacts:
1. Greenhouse gas emissions
One of the most alarming consequences of permafrost thaw is the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from long-frozen organic matter.
As permafrost melts, microbes begin breaking down plant and animal remains that have been locked away for millennia. In oxygen-rich conditions, this process releases CO2. In waterlogged or oxygen-poor areas - like thaw lakes and bogs - it produces methane, which is far more powerful in trapping heat.
This means that thawing permafrost isn’t just a consequence of climate change, it’s starting to act as a driver of it.
2. Infrastructure collapse
Many Arctic communities were built assuming the ground beneath them was permanently frozen. As it softens and shifts, the results can be disastrous.
In Alaska, homes are tilting, highways are warping, and runways are cracking. Some Indigenous villages are being forced to relocate entirely as the ground beneath them becomes uninhabitable. It’s a problem that comes with a steep price tag, with climate-related ground instability potentially costing Alaska hundreds of millions in damages over the coming decades.
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3. Shifting ecosystems
Thawing ground changes the way water moves through landscapes. In some places, it leads to the formation of ponds and wetlands. In others, it causes soil to dry out and vegetation to shift from mossy tundra to shrubland, for example. These ecological shifts can disrupt plant and animal life that depend on cold, stable conditions.
4. Increased risk of landslides and rockfalls
In alpine areas, permafrost acts like the glue that holds mountainsides together. As it thaws, the risk of landslides and rockfalls increases. This is already becoming a concern in the Alps, where summer heatwaves have triggered deadly rockfalls in areas once considered geologically stable.
5. Potential disease risks
One of the more unsettling risks linked to permafrost thaw is the release of ancient bacteria and viruses. In 2016, a child in northern Siberia died from anthrax after a thawed reindeer carcass, frozen for decades, released spores into the environment.
While these cases are rare, scientists have warned that deeper thawing could expose long-dormant pathogens, some of which we may not be prepared to deal with.
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Can we stop it, or at least slow it down?
That said, there’s still plenty we can do.
Cutting emissions is the most effective action
Very simply, the more the planet warms, the more permafrost we lose, and the more carbon that gets released, pushing temperatures higher still.
Slowing global warming is the only viable way to limit the scale of permafrost thaw. That means rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, phasing out fossil fuels, and accelerating the transition to low-carbon energy systems. It also means protecting existing carbon sinks like forests and wetlands, and investing in strategies to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Experimental solutions
Some scientists are exploring creative ways to preserve permafrost locally. One of the best-known projects is Pleistocene Park in northeastern Siberia, a long-running experiment that involves reintroducing large herbivores like bison and horses to trample snow and encourage the growth of grasslands, which reflect more sunlight and insulate the ground less than forest or tundra.
The idea is to mimic Ice Age ecosystems, which may have helped keep the soil colder. Early results are promising, though it’s still a localised solution that can’t be scaled up easily.
Other efforts include engineered solutions, like reflective ground coverings and subterranean cooling systems, to stabilise infrastructure built on permafrost. These approaches can help protect roads and pipelines, but they don’t address the broader climate feedback.
Monitoring and modelling
Given how quickly conditions are changing, monitoring permafrost is more important than ever. A growing network of international researchers, including the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost, is tracking ground temperatures and ice content across key sites in the Arctic and mountain regions.
Better data helps improve models that predict how much carbon may be released, and when. That, in turn, helps policymakers and scientists prioritise climate responses and infrastructure planning.
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“ While we can’t stop all permafrost from thawing, we’re not powerless. Limiting warming to 1.5°C won’t “save” permafrost completely, but it would significantly reduce the risk of triggering large-scale carbon releases that make climate goals harder to reach. ”
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What about Greenly?
Preserving permafrost and staying within the 1.5°C global temperature threshold will require action on every level, from governments and scientists to businesses. Companies have a critical role to play in reducing emissions, and doing so effectively means having the right tools and strategy in place.
That’s where Greenly comes in. Our carbon management platform helps businesses:
- Measure emissions across Scopes 1, 2 and 3 – including energy use, travel, purchased goods, and supply chain impacts
- Identify targeted reduction opportunities – with science-based pathways tailored to your sector
- Engage suppliers to build a more sustainable and climate-aligned value chain
- Prepare for regulation, including frameworks like the CSRD, SBTi, and other climate disclosures
- Track progress over time – with intuitive dashboards and detailed reporting
Sources
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- Greenly, Climate Change in 2022: Where Do We Stand?, https://greenly.earth/en-gb/blog/ecology-news/climate-change-in-2022-where-do-we-stand
- Greenly, Carbon Emissions: What You Need to Know, https://greenly.earth/en-gb/blog/ecology-news/carbon-emissions-what-you-need-to-kno
- Greenly, What is Methane and How Does It Contribute to Global Warming?, https://greenly.earth/en-gb/blog/ecology-news/what-is-methane-and-how-does-it-contribute-to-global-warming
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Permafrost Mitigation Policy, https://permafrost.woodwellclimate.org/mitigation-policy/
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- The Canadian Encyclopedia, Permafrost in Canada, https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/permafrost#:~:text=About%2050%20per%20cent%20of,Arctic%20(courtesy%20Parks%20Canada)
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- Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P), Homepage, https://gtnp.arcticportal.org/